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世界預測中國增長目標 未來十年仍可謹慎樂觀

中國經濟明年會增長多少?隨著被認為“為明年經濟工作定調”的中央經濟工作會議將於12月召開,這個問題成為世界熱猜的話題。

  從6.5%到9%,主流輿論給出的數字雖然只差2.5個百分點,但在一些分析人士眼中,它們之間的“溫差”就像寒帶與亞熱帶那樣明顯。在緊盯近期增長目標的同時,許多分析人士還透過望遠鏡審視中國經濟的長遠前景:未來10年世界將出現一個更強的經濟大國,還是一個“蕭條大國”?中國實現大跨越的障礙和動力在哪?

  香港《南華早報》11月27日解釋了中國經濟令世界著迷的原因:“這是一個快速發展的巨大國家,它正在全世界引發海嘯。”文章還預計,未來5年,“變革之風將‘吹遍’中國經濟”。

  英國《金融時報》則對未來10年的中國經濟做出“謹慎樂觀的預測”:隨著發展到一定程度,中國經濟放慢似乎不可避免;好消息是,中國的新領導層對問題十分清楚,中國過去30年成功克服了更大的經濟挑戰,他們能再次這樣做。

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