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新聞分析:諶龍遇考驗 “小花”挺幸運

新華網倫敦7月23日奧運專電(記者姬燁 白旭)倫敦奧運會羽毛球比賽抽籤儀式23日進行,從最終的結果看,中國隊頭一次參加奧運會的男單選手諶龍將面臨嚴峻的考驗,而國羽3朵“金花”則相對幸運,避開了各自較為難纏的對手。

  本屆奧運會採用了先小組賽、後淘汰賽的新賽制。單打分為16個小組,每組2到3人,小組頭名晉級16強,16位種子被依次分到各組中;雙打專案分為4個小組,每組4對,小組前2名晉級四分之一決賽,4位種子被依次分到各組中。

  由於男單只有40人,所以世界羽聯決定讓男單的前8位種子所在小組有2人,其餘8個小組有3人。相比其他15位種子,世界第三的諶龍實在運氣欠佳。他與泰國名將波薩那一組,而後者幾乎是所有非種子選手中實力最強的。早在2004年雅典奧運會,波薩那便闖入4強,在上月這位泰國一哥還擊敗中國小將王錚茗奪得了新加坡超級賽的冠軍。

  除此以外,諶龍也是男單上半區唯一的中國選手,因此他也肩負著“掃雷兵”的任務。如果沒有冷門,他將先後在四分之一決賽和半決賽中面對丹麥老將蓋德和馬來西亞名將李宗偉。倫敦相當於蓋德的半個主場,而李宗偉雖然有傷在身,但實力毋庸置疑。

  諶龍想在自己的奧運處子秀中有所作為困難重重。這位23歲的中國小將被譽為林丹的最佳接班人,他在去年下半年曾經完成了對李宗偉的3連勝。此番倫敦之戰,如果他能最終闖過重重關卡,必將成為其職業生涯的又一新轉捩點。

  相比之下,下半區的林丹和陳金簽位不錯。衛冕冠軍林丹雖然有可能在八分之一決賽中與雅典奧運會冠軍陶菲克相遇,但如今的陶菲克早已今非昔比,自從2007年以來,他還從未戰勝過林丹。

  林丹和陳金會師半決賽的最大障礙分別是日本選手佐佐木翔和韓國人李鉉一,這是兩場可能的四分之一決賽對陣。佐佐木翔在場上十分頑強,他將考驗林丹的耐性。而李鉉一在面對陳金也不處於劣勢,近4次交手2人戰成2平。

  女單方面,頭號種子王儀涵獨守上半區,她的主要對手將是世界第五的印度人內維爾、丹麥老將鮑恩、中華臺北選手鄭韶婕和韓國人裴延姝。汪鑫、李雪芮在晉級路上或與德國悍將申克、韓國選手成池鉉等好手交鋒。

  中國女單的整體簽運不錯,3朵“金花”避開了各自比較難纏的對手,相比可能遭遇的對手在勝率上又有一定的優勢。但女單對手眾多、變數較大,加之最後時刻拿到奧運門票的李雪芮欠缺大賽經驗,國羽女單仍面臨較大的考驗。

  中國的男雙頭號組合蔡?/傅海峰所在的A組3個對手實力均不強,他們獲得小組頭名的幾率很大。而另一對中國組合柴飆/郭振東則與世界第三的丹麥名將鮑伊/摩根森同在C組。依據規則,四分之一決賽中A組第一將對C組第二,因此柴飆/郭振東需要力爭C組第一,從而避免與“風雲”過早內戰。

  中國隊總教練李永波之前最看好國羽女雙這枚金牌,而從抽籤結果看,世界前兩位的“雙保險”於洋/王曉理和田卿/趙芸蕾在小組賽和四分之一決賽中都不會遇到太強的對手,對他們來說真正的考驗要到半決賽才開始。

  然而在混雙中,中國隊的兩對組合則需要在小組賽中就打起100分的精神。A組中世界第一的張楠/趙芸蕾與去年世錦賽決賽對手、英國組合阿德考克/班吉爾再度碰面,去年世錦賽中張楠/趙芸蕾獲勝,但在奧運賽場,對手的東道主優勢將更為明顯。

  D組中世界第二的徐晨/馬晉與排名世界前十的泰國、馬來西亞和中華臺北組合同組,可謂場場硬仗。

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