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廣州的房價頂部在哪里?

 最近房價又開始有蠢蠢欲動跡象,開始向筆者諮詢買房的朋友又多了起來。算了下,今年身邊朋友買房的第一波高潮主要集中在4-6月份降息降准之前;而恰好降准降息後,他們買的樓價格上漲了大約有10%。度過了三季度以後,現在又有人來開始諮詢了。從最近十年房價的走勢來看,基本上都是一條連綿不斷的向上大陽線,似乎在什麼地方買入都是低位。難道廣州的房價會一直升到天上去嗎?顯然這不太可能。那麼廣州房價的頂部在哪里呢?姑且就來算一下吧!僅為一家之言,只供參考!

  房價是由什麼支撐的呢?長期來看,是房租。房租的極限在哪里?一個人除了房租,還要吃喝、消費、以及儲蓄部分以備不時之需。一般來說,工資的一半用來交房租基本就是極限了吧。廣州的平均年薪水準,按2011年統計是57473元,合每月4789元。扣除20%的“四險一金”,大約每個月到手3800元。3800元的一半,算2000元好了。2000元,這就是廣州市的平均市民能夠負擔的每月房租極限。如果按兩口之家70平米算,就是4000元租70平米,合一平米租金價格約為60元。一平米月租60元,是按照目前廣州市的平均收入水準得出的平均租金極限。

  另一方面,60元一平米的月租金對應的“合理”房價應該是多少呢?按照60元一平米的月租,折算為年租金是720元一平米。按照4%的收益率折算回本金,那就是18000元一平米。這裏面的道理很簡單,如果你要花18000元去買一平方的樓,跟你不買樓花720元去租一平方的樓是一樣的。因為省下的18000元,每年4%的收益率正好就是720元的房租。所以說,按照目前廣州的人均工資水準,每平米18000元大概就是廣州樓價水準的極限了。當然,根據各個區域的收入水準差異,可能會有一定的高低之分。例如天河區的工資如果能夠到1萬,那麼天河區的房價極限可能就在36000元一平米左右。

  上述推理過程是按照房租來計算的,如果按房貸月供角度計算,結果更加會小一些。假設一個月兩口之家月供4000元的平均極限,按照目前6.55%的20年貸款,大概可以貸60萬。按7成按揭,對應的房價就是85萬。如果按照70平米計算,則房價極限在15000元一平米左右。

  既然如此,廣州的房價還有多少上漲空間呢?根據調查數據顯示,2012年9月全國100個城市住宅平均價格為8753元/平方米,環比8月上漲0 .17%。其中廣州以15442元/平方米的成交均價排在第七位。這麼看來,比起18000元/平方米似乎還有20%的上漲空間?不過如果考慮到過戶費、房產稅等交易成本,目前大約占到房價的10%,可能最終的上漲空間最多也只有10%而已。超出這個水準,就可能要開始踏入“泡沫”的範圍了。

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